STC vs LGC: what the SRES expansion is worth

Rough comparison for a mid-scale (100 kW – 1 MW) system. Edit the inputs and drag the install year.

Zone 3 (rating 1.382)
20262027202820292030
STC pathway (new rules)
$0
LGC pathway (old rules)
$0
Upfront STC advantage
$0
STC value (paid once, at install) LGC revenue per year (stops end 2030)
Certificate value received per year, STC versus LGC pathway

STCs estimated as size × zone rating × deeming period, where the deeming period declines each year toward the scheme’s 2030 close (5 years for a 2026 install, down to 1 year in 2030), monetised at the entered spot price; agent fees not included. Note: the government’s announcement proposes a deeming period based on 5 years each year to 2030 for the new mid-scale category; final regulations will confirm which applies. Postcode zones and ratings are from the CER postcode zone table. LGC revenue assumes straight generation of size × peak sun hours × efficiency: no monitoring errors, no auxiliary power draw, no marginal loss factors, and no panel degradation over time. It is held flat at the entered LGC price and stops when the LRET closes at the end of 2030. Large-scale registration, metering and audit costs are not modelled and would reduce the LGC figure further. Certificate prices move over time, this upcoming 1 October 2026 change may affect current prices significantly. These are indicative figures only.